The consensus forecast of experts participating in the discussion of the macroeconomic forecast assumes a GDP growth at 3.1% for FY 2018, 3% in 2019, 3.1% in 2020 and 3.9% in 2021.
Experts downgraded the growth forecast for the economy of Ukraine, the Ministry of economic development
This reports the press service of the Ministry of economic development and trade following the discussion, the consensus forecast, reports Biznestsentr.
Experts also predict a decline in consumer prices (December to December of the previous year) at the rate of 9.5% in 2018 and up to 7.4% in 2019, 6% in 2020 and 5% in 2021.
According to the report, among the main risks for economy of Ukraine for the period of the forecast, the experts identified a number of external and internal.
"External risks: failure to obtain planned financing from the IMF, the deficit of foreign funding and shrinkage of possibilities of access to international capital markets, the strengthening of hybrid threats to national security of Ukraine, in particular, active military confrontation in the East of the country. Internal risks: strengthening of devaluation tendencies at the monetary market, not fast enough to carry out reforms, the persistence of low credit activity of commercial banks", – stated in the message.
See also: the ECB expects a gain in core inflation in the Euro area against the background of accelerating wage growth
As reported in April, the consensus forecast of the Ministry of economic development and trade suggested that the growth of Ukraine's GDP in 2018 will amount to 3.2% inflation rate (December to December) to 9.7% in next year to slow marginally to 3.1%, and in 2020 will accelerate to 3.3%.
As you know, the "consensus forecast" is the average values of the main forecasted indicators of economic development of Ukraine, which is calculated as the median on the basis of expert assessments of survey participants-leading specialists in the field of macroanalysis and forecasting.
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